靠估

今日讀到Victor Niederhoffer在Daily Speculations對最近大市的分析，佢認為今個禮拜會升，大家不妨睇睇呢位speculator點解咁講，跟佢學吓野：

10-Jun-2006
Briefly Speaking, by Victor Niederhoffer

At times like this with considerable cross currents, and stocks down a full 80 S&P points or 800 Dow points in a month, it is helpful to gain perspective to look at some numbers. The main proximate reason that stocks have gone down can't be denied. There were three or four bearish things said about interest rates from the Fed. First the Open Market meeting, next the denial that there were mixed signals, next the bad CPI report that raised fears of interest rate increases (a good lobogolesque thing for a reversal this week), next the statement that inflation is troublesome, and finally the orchestrated tough talk from the five "Governors." On each occasion the market declined some 20 S&P points or 200 Dow points. That's the entire decline.

But, what has happened to interest rates during this period? Bonds have gone up from 105 to 108 and are sitting at a two-month high. What has happened to gold, the major inflation indicator? It's down some 15% from 730 to 600. Most telling, the omniscient indicator silver down 25% from $15.00 to slightly above $11.00.

What is the effect of such moves in bonds on stocks? In the short term, about 1% a week up. In the long term, there has not been a move in stocks during the last 20 years that has been less than 5% up, with the average up 15% when the forecasted earnings yield has been 1% or more higher than bonds. Now the earnings yield stands at 6% and bond yield below 5%.

There are many arguments put forth by the bears. Interest rates are going up? The yield curve is inverted. Profits are not going to grow by as much as forecasted. But, are not stocks valued based on a stream of discounted earnings for the future? And what is the best estimate of the discount rate, a long term or a short term rate?

Eventually this decline will pass. And like the one in 1997, where stocks ended up 15% on the year, it will seem so tragic that good people were extricated from their positions at such beautiful levels.

I'll go on record with a prediction - supported by the statistics on the table - of what happens to stocks the next few days after five declines in a row, and what happens to them when bonds close at a maximum and stocks at a minimum. The prediction: the rise will start on Monday.

我又來靠估。如果我係大戶，我會喺來緊三個禮拜咁炒法：

1. 第一個禮拜，將個市炒上。理由係有部份人認為個市「應該」已經見底。見到個市升，於是乎一眾散戶追入。
2. 第二個禮拜，將個市炒落。理由係驚6月29日會加息。實情係要令再度亢奮嘅散戶再坐一次過山車。
3. 第三個禮拜，滿街鮮血，因為散戶進入極度恐慌。大戶趁壞消息出盡，再以世界盃即將結束為藉口，入市！